Greetings, traders! ๐
CPI week is here. Inflation data drops Wednesday โ and it could seal the fate of September rate expectations. Add token unlocks, PPI, retail sales, and Fed speakers to the mix. Here's everything on the radar.
All times in UTC for our global community๐
๐ ETF Inflows in August
Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $853.5M so far in August โ the best weekly performance since April. BlackRock's IBIT led with $693.5M, marking the strongest inflows of any ETF since January. This is a sharp rebound from July's $172M and helps support BTC in the $64K-$65K zone.
๐ Historical Context: August is BTC's Weakest Month
August is historically the worst month for Bitcoin: 9 red closes in 13 years, with a median return of -7.49%. If bearish catalysts align, BTC could drop to ~$59K, which would fit historical patterns.
๐ต Key resistance: $65,000-$65,600. Support: $63,700-$64,000.
All times in UTC for our global community.
๐ MONDAY, August 10
๐ Avalanche unlock - ~1.67M tokens (~$10.8M), 0.31% of supply
๐ TUESDAY, August 11
๐บ๐ธ 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales (July)
๐ WEDNESDAY, August 12 - CPI DAY ๐ฅ
๐ฉ๐ช 06:00 UTC - Germany CPI (July Final)
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC โ US CPI (July) โ The main event. Headline expected to cool, but core CPI is the Fed's focus. Sticky core above 3.3% reduces odds of rate cuts.
๐บ๐ธ 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
๐บ๐ธ 16:00 UTC - WASDE Report (USDA)
๐บ๐ธ 18:00 UTC - US Federal Budget Report (July)
๐Aptos unlock ~11.31M tokens (~$6.7M)
๐PUMP unlock ~6.875B tokens (~$10-16M) - Split between team (~4.17B) and investors (~2.71B), following a 12-month cliff
๐ THURSDAY, August 13
๐ฌ๐ง 06:00 UTC - UK GDP (Q2 Prelim)
๐ช๐บ 09:00 UTC - EU Industrial Production (June)
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - US PPI (July) - Consensus: core PPI +0.3% MoM, services-driven
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
๐ฃ 12:40 UTC - Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks โ 10 minutes after PPI. He has a 2026 FOMC vote. Any hawkish tone could trigger a "PPI aftershock" across bonds, dollar, and BTC.
๐บ๐ธ 20:30 UTC - Fed Balance Sheet
๐ FRIDAY, August 14
๐ช๐บ 09:00 UTC - EU GDP (Q2 Prelim)
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales (July) - Expected +0.5% MoM - the consumer health check
๐บ๐ธ 15:00 UTC - Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (Aug Prelim)
๐ SUNDAY, August 16
๐ YZY unlock ~120-121M tokens (~$35.8M), ~22.83% of circulating supply - largest relative unlock of the week
๐ Arbitrum unlock ~$9.17M
โก๏ธ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1๏ธโฃ CPI Data (Wed) - The most important event of the week. A cooler print strengthens the case for Fed easing and tends to support risk appetite. A hotter reading reinforces higher-for-longer, a headwind for crypto.
2๏ธโฃ Barkin Speech (Thu) โ 10 minutes after PPI. Richmond Fed President has a 2026 FOMC vote. Markets will parse his tone carefully.
3๏ธโฃ Token Unlocks - Over $100M in new supply hits this week. PUMP and APT drop Wednesday.
4๏ธโฃ ETF Inflows - $853.5M in August so far, best weekly performance since April. BlackRock's IBIT led with $693.5M.
5๏ธโฃ BTC has closed August red in 9 of the last 13 years. A drop to $59K would fit historical patterns if bearish catalysts align.
Stay sharp. CPI is the catalyst.
