Greetings, traders! 👋
A super-central-bank week is here: the Fed, ECB, and BoJ all meet, plus Ripple Swell and Stellar Meridian. Add a $11B+ Bitcoin options expiry and Strategy's Q3 earnings, here's what's on the radar.
All times in UTC for our global community.
📅 MONDAY, OCTOBER 26
🇯🇵 23:00 UTC (Oct 25) - Japan Leading Economic Index (Aug)
📅 TUESDAY, OCTOBER 27 - RIPPLE SWELL OPENS
😎 Ripple Swell 2026 - New York (Oct 27-29). 1,500+ attendees, 100+ speakers including CME Group CEO Terrence Duffy and Bullish CEO Tom Farley. Focus on RLUSD and XRPL partnerships.
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US Durable Goods Orders (Sept Prelim)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - US New Home Sales (Sept)
🇪🇺 17:00 UTC - ECB President Lagarde speech
📅 WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28 - FOMC DAY 🔥
🌐 Stellar Meridian 2026 - Lisbon (Oct 28-29).
🇺🇸 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
🇺🇸 18:00 UTC - FOMC Rate Decision - ~90% probability of a hold at 3.75%-4.00%. Markets expect a pause before the midterms and a hike in December.
🇺🇸 18:30 UTC - FOMC Press Conference with Chair Kevin Warsh
📅 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29 - GDP + PCE + ECB + STRATEGY EARNINGS
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Core PCE Price Index (Sept) — Consensus: +0.3% MoM, 3.1% YoY
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US GDP (Q3 Advance)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
🇪🇺 13:15 UTC - ECB Rate Decision. Expected: hold at 2.50%. A December hike is likely.
📊 After US market close - Strategy (MSTR) Q3 2026 Earnings, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin reports. Webinar at 5:00 PM ET (21:00 UTC).
🔓 Falcon Finance unlock - ~203M tokens (~$21.3M), 6.07% of supply, at 20:58 UTC
📅 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30 - BoJ + OPTIONS EXPIRY 🔥
🇯🇵 ~03:00 UTC - BoJ Rate Decision - Expected: hold at 1.25%. A December or January hike is the base case.
🇩🇪 09:00 UTC - Germany GDP (Q3 Prelim)
🇪🇺 10:00 UTC - EU GDP (Q3 Prelim)
🇩🇪 13:00 UTC - Germany CPI (Oct Prelim)
📊 08:00 UTC - Massive Bitcoin Options Expiry on Deribit
~140,800 contracts expiring, notional value ~$11.7B
Max Pain: $78,000–$79,000 — below current price
Largest cluster: $95,000 calls — ~24,000 BTC (~$2.1B notional), now far out-of-the-money
📅 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 31
🇨🇳 01:30 UTC - China PMIs (Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/Composite) - Oct
📅 SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 1
🔓 EigenLayer unlock - ~36.82M tokens (~$7.4M), 4.93% of supply
📊 POLYMARKET BTC PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels by year-end:
🔹 $85,000 — 80% chance
🔹 $90,000 — 59% chance
🔹 $95,000 — 39% chance
🔹 $100,000 — 25% chance
⚡️ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1️⃣ Options Expiry (Fri) - $11.7B in BTC options expire. Max pain at $78K-$79K creates downward pressure, but the $95K call wall is a "magnet" that can cause sharp swings either way as hedges unwind.
2️⃣ Strategy Earnings (Thu) - Largest corporate BTC holder reports Q3. Any commentary on treasury strategy or BTC accumulation matters.
3️⃣ GDP + PCE (Thu) - Q3 growth and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge drop together. A hot PCE could cement December hike expectations.
4️⃣ ECB Decision (Thu) - Expected hold at 2.50%. Lagarde's tone on energy inflation matters.
5️⃣ BoJ Decision (Fri) - Expected hold. A hawkish December signal could trigger yen volatility and spill into risk assets.
Stay sharp. Central banks, options expiry, and Strategy set the tone.
