Greetings, traders! 👋
Q4 kicks off with a stacked calendar: Jobs Week, Korea Blockchain Week, and over $300M in token unlocks. After the Fed's hawkish hold in July, markets are watching every data point.
All times in UTC for our global community.
📅 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
🇯🇵 23:50 UTC (Sep 27) - Japan BoJ Minutes
🇪🇺 13:30 UTC - ECB President Lagarde speech
📊 BTC holding $83,000 after options expiry. Market digesting the $16B+ settlement.
📅 TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29 - KBW OPENS
🌐 Korea Blockchain Week 2026 - Seoul (Sept 29 - Oct 1).
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - CB Consumer Confidence (Sept)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
🔓 Falcon Finance unlock - ~203M tokens (~$27.1M), 6.47% of circulating supply
📅 WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 - GDP + PCE DAY
🇨🇳 01:30 UTC - China PMIs (Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/Composite) - Sept
🇬🇧 06:00 UTC - UK GDP (Q2 Final)
🇩🇪 12:00 UTC - Germany CPI (Sept Prelim)
🇺🇸 12:15 UTC - ADP Employment Change (Sept)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Core PCE Price Index (Aug) - Fed's preferred inflation gauge
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US GDP (Q2 Final)
🇺🇸 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
🔓 Optimism unlock - ~31.34M tokens (~$24.27M), 1.74% of supply
📅 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1 - KBW DAY 3 + FED SPEAKERS
🇪🇺 08:00 UTC - EU Manufacturing PMI (Sept Final)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
🇺🇸 13:45 UTC - US Manufacturing PMI (Sept Final)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sept)
🇺🇸 20:30 UTC - Fed Balance Sheet
🔓 Sui unlock - ~13.26M tokens (~$16.7M), 0.32% of supply
📅 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2 - NFP DAY 📊
🇪🇺 09:00 UTC - EU CPI (Sept Prelim)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Nonfarm Payrolls (Sept)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Unemployment Rate (Sept)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - US Factory Orders (Aug)
📊 POLYMARKET PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels by year-end:
🔹 $85,000 — 80% chance
🔹 $90,000 — 59% chance
🔹 $95,000 — 39% chance
🔹 $100,000 — 25% chance
🔹 $150,000 — just 3% chance
⚡️ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1️⃣ NFP Report (Fri) - After the Fed's hawkish hold in July, jobs data is critical. A strong print could cement September hike odds; a miss could trigger relief .
2️⃣ Korea Blockchain Week (Tue-Thu) - Asia's largest crypto event. Arthur Hayes, Joseph Lubin, Tom Lee, and Upbit CEO speaking. Potential announcements could move sentiment .
3️⃣ Core PCE (Wed) - The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Released alongside Q2 GDP final .
4️⃣ Token Unlocks — Over $86M this week. FF ($27.1M), OP ($24.27M), SUI ($16.7M), ENA ($11M), KMNO ($11.26M), 2Z ($7.45M).
5️⃣ Fed Speakers (Thu) - Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Logan. Warsh refuses forward guidance, so every speech matters .
Stay sharp. Q4 begins with a bang.
📊 XBTS Dex & DeFi
Dex NEW https://trade.xbts.io
Dex Classic https://ex.xbts.io
Safely! Instantly! Simply
