Greetings, traders! ๐
Q4 kicks off with a stacked calendar: Jobs Week, Korea Blockchain Week, and over $300M in token unlocks. After the Fed's hawkish hold in July, markets are watching every data point.
All times in UTC for our global community.
๐ MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
๐ฏ๐ต 23:50 UTC (Sep 27) - Japan BoJ Minutes
๐ช๐บ 13:30 UTC - ECB President Lagarde speech
๐ BTC holding $83,000 after options expiry. Market digesting the $16B+ settlement.
๐ TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29 - KBW OPENS
๐ Korea Blockchain Week 2026 - Seoul (Sept 29 - Oct 1).
๐บ๐ธ 14:00 UTC - CB Consumer Confidence (Sept)
๐บ๐ธ 14:00 UTC - JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
๐ Falcon Finance unlock - ~203M tokens (~$27.1M), 6.47% of circulating supply
๐ WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 - GDP + PCE DAY
๐จ๐ณ 01:30 UTC - China PMIs (Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/Composite) - Sept
๐ฌ๐ง 06:00 UTC - UK GDP (Q2 Final)
๐ฉ๐ช 12:00 UTC - Germany CPI (Sept Prelim)
๐บ๐ธ 12:15 UTC - ADP Employment Change (Sept)
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - Core PCE Price Index (Aug) - Fed's preferred inflation gauge
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - US GDP (Q2 Final)
๐บ๐ธ 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
๐ Optimism unlock - ~31.34M tokens (~$24.27M), 1.74% of supply
๐ THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1 - KBW DAY 3 + FED SPEAKERS
๐ช๐บ 08:00 UTC - EU Manufacturing PMI (Sept Final)
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
๐บ๐ธ 13:45 UTC - US Manufacturing PMI (Sept Final)
๐บ๐ธ 14:00 UTC - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sept)
๐บ๐ธ 20:30 UTC - Fed Balance Sheet
๐ Sui unlock - ~13.26M tokens (~$16.7M), 0.32% of supply
๐ FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2 - NFP DAY ๐
๐ช๐บ 09:00 UTC - EU CPI (Sept Prelim)
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - Nonfarm Payrolls (Sept)
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - Unemployment Rate (Sept)
๐บ๐ธ 14:00 UTC - US Factory Orders (Aug)
๐ POLYMARKET PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels by year-end:
๐น $85,000 โ 80% chance
๐น $90,000 โ 59% chance
๐น $95,000 โ 39% chance
๐น $100,000 โ 25% chance
๐น $150,000 โ just 3% chance
โก๏ธ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1๏ธโฃ NFP Report (Fri) - After the Fed's hawkish hold in July, jobs data is critical. A strong print could cement September hike odds; a miss could trigger relief .
2๏ธโฃ Korea Blockchain Week (Tue-Thu) - Asia's largest crypto event. Arthur Hayes, Joseph Lubin, Tom Lee, and Upbit CEO speaking. Potential announcements could move sentiment .
3๏ธโฃ Core PCE (Wed) - The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Released alongside Q2 GDP final .
4๏ธโฃ Token Unlocks โ Over $86M this week. FF ($27.1M), OP ($24.27M), SUI ($16.7M), ENA ($11M), KMNO ($11.26M), 2Z ($7.45M).
5๏ธโฃ Fed Speakers (Thu) - Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Logan. Warsh refuses forward guidance, so every speech matters .
Stay sharp. Q4 begins with a bang.
๐ XBTS Dex & DeFi
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