Greetings, traders! ๐
Markets are still digesting the Fed's first rate hike since 2023. This week brings Flash PMIs, major exchange closures, and over $190M in token unlocks.
All times in UTC for our global community.
๐ MONDAY, September 21
๐จ๐ณ 01:15 UTC - China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
๐ช๐บ 15:00 UTC - ECB President Lagarde speech
๐ TUESDAY, September 22
๐ CoinEx stops all services except spot trading. On-chain deposits blocked except CET .
๐ WEDNESDAY, September 23 - BITMEX CLOSURE DAY ๐จ
๐ช๐บ 08:00 UTC - EU Flash PMIs (Manufacturing/Services/Composite) โ Sept Prelim
๐บ๐ธ 13:45 UTC - US Flash PMIs - First major economic indicator after the Fed's rate hike
๐บ๐ธ 14:05 UTC - Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speech
๐บ๐ธ 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
๐จ BitMEX permanently shuts down at 04:00 UTC. All open positions force-closed. Withdrawal access remains, but KYC'd users face monthly fees .
๐ THURSDAY, September 24
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
๐บ๐ธ 14:00 UTC - US New Home Sales (Aug)
๐บ๐ธ 20:30 UTC - Fed Balance Sheet
๐ World Network unlock โ ~100.06M tokens (~$171.3M)
๐ FRIDAY, September 25 โ OPTIONS EXPIRY DAY ๐
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - US Durable Goods Orders (Aug)
๐บ๐ธ 14:00 UTC - Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (Sept Final)
๐ 08:00 UTC - $16.6B in BTC & ETH Options Expiry - Max pain at $72,000
๐ Humanity unlock - ~266M tokens (~$19.3M), 7.34% of circulating supply
๐ SUNDAY, September 27
๐ Plasma unlock - ~29.72M tokens (~$28.47M)
๐ POLYMARKET PRICE OUTLOOK: What Traders Are Betting
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels by year-end:
๐น $85,000 - 80% chance
๐น $90,000 - 59% chance
๐น $95,000 - 39% chance
๐น $100,000 - 25% chance
๐น $150,000 - just 2% chance
Note: These are odds of BTC touching the level at any point before Dec 31.
โก๏ธ REGULATORY WATCH - SEC ACTS AFTER CLARITY FAILS ๐
SEC issues Innovation Exemption - SEC granted a five-year conditional exemption allowing Tokenized Securities Venues (TSVs) to trade tokenized US stocks without registering as exchanges .
โก๏ธ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1๏ธโฃ SEC Innovation Exemption โ A major regulatory development.
2๏ธโฃ Exchange Closures โ BitMEX (Sept 23) and CoinEx (Sept 22 non-spot) are shutting down.
3๏ธโฃ Flash PMIs (Wed) โ First economic data after the Fed's hike. Weak readings could reignite policy error fears.
4๏ธโฃ Options Expiry (Fri) โ $16.6B expiry with max pain at $72K. Volatility likely.
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