Greetings, traders! 👋
A critical inflation week is here. US CPI drops Tuesday, and Bitcoin is sitting right on the 200-day moving average - the level that decides whether this correction becomes a full-blown downtrend.
All times in UTC for our global community.
💵WHY BTC ISN'T BOUNCING: THE MACRO BACKDROP
Democrats won both chambers. Markets are pricing in stricter crypto regulation, and Senate Democrat Richard Blumenthal has already demanded documents from Binance, Tether, and World Liberty Financial by January 4, 2027.
NFP came in hot. October payrolls rose +165K vs. consensus +65K. Unemployment fell to 4.1%. This reinforced expectations that the Fed stays hawkish - markets now price ~77% odds of a December hike . Higher rates = pressure on risk assets.
The technical line that matters: $73,170. This is the 200-day moving average. BTC hasn't closed below it since August 18. A confirmed break below signals a shift to a bearish long-term trend. Above it, the correction remains within a normal range.
📅 MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9
🇨🇳 01:30 UTC - China CPI (Oct)
📅 TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10 - US CPI DAY 🔥
🌐 Digital Asset Summit 2026 - London (Nov 10-11). Institutional focus on custody, tokenization, and MiCA regulation.
🇺🇸 13:30 UTC - US CPI (Oct) - Consensus: +0.3% MoM headline, +0.2% core. This is the key data point before the December FOMC.
📅 WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 11
🇩🇪 07:00 UTC - Germany CPI (Oct Final)
🇪🇺 09:45 UTC - ECB President Lagarde speech
📅 THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12
🇬🇧 07:00 UTC - UK GDP (Q3 Prelim)
🇪🇺 09:00 UTC - ECB Monthly Report
🇺🇸 13:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
🇺🇸 15:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales (Oct)
🔓 PUMP unlock - ~9.17B tokens (~$38.0M)
📅 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13 — PPI + OPTIONS EXPIRY
🇺🇸 13:30 UTC - US PPI (Oct) - Consensus: +0.4% MoM
📊 08:00 UTC - Deribit Options Expiry - BTC OI ~$89.5M, P/C ratio 1.25 (put-heavy)
📊 POLYMARKET BTC PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket (>$82M volume) prices BTC hitting these levels before 2027:
🔹 $70,000 - 52% chance (downside test)
🔹 $90,000 - 24% chance
🔹 $100,000 - 9% chance
November contracts: 81% chance of touching $77,500, 56% for $80,000, and 61% for $72,500.
Kalshi year-end settlement: $75K-$79,999 leads at 17.6%, followed closely by $70K-$74,999 at 17.5%.
⚡️ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1️⃣ US CPI (Tue) - With December hike odds at ~77%, a hot core print could cement tightening. A soft print might offer relief, but sticky services inflation remains the risk.
2️⃣ $73,170 - The 200-Day MA - The single most important level on the chart. A daily close below confirms a trend shift. Watch it closely.
3️⃣ Options Expiry (Fri) - BTC OI is put-heavy (P/C 1.25), suggesting hedging demand. Max pain positioning can still create volatility.
Stay sharp. CPI and the 200-day MA decide the next move.
XBTS DEX & DeFi & Private Swaps Aggregator
