Greetings, traders! 👋
A critical week for macro data lies ahead. US CPI, PPI, and retail sales all drop in a single stretch — and Fed Chair Warsh speaks just before the FOMC blackout period. Here's everything on the radar.
All times in UTC for our global community.
📅 MONDAY, OCTOBER 12
🇺🇸 US Columbus Day - Bond markets closed, stock markets open
📊 BTC trading at $83,400, holding near the lower end of its two-week range
📅 TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13
🇩🇪 06:00 UTC - Germany CPI (Sept Final)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales (Sept)
🇺🇸 18:00 UTC - US Federal Budget Report (Sept)
📅 WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14 — US CPI DAY 🔥
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US CPI (Sept) - The week's main event. BLS confirms release on Oct 14
🇺🇸 13:30 UTC - US Leading Economic Indicators
🇺🇸 18:00 UTC - Fed Beige Book — Anecdotal economic summary ahead of the Oct 27-28 FOMC
📅 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15
🇬🇧 06:00 UTC - UK GDP (Aug)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales (Sept)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US PPI (Sept) - Released alongside retail sales
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims
🇺🇸 16:00 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
📅 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 16
🇺🇸 03:30 UTC - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks - Dialogue with IMF Managing Director Georgieva at the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. This is his last public appearance before the FOMC blackout period begins on Oct 17.
🇪🇺 08:00 UTC - EU CPI (Sept Final)
🇺🇸 13:15 UTC - US Industrial Production (Sept)
📊 POLYMARKET BTC PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels by year-end:
🔹 $85,000 - 80% chance
🔹 $90,000 - 59% chance
🔹 $95,000 - 39% chance
🔹 $100,000 - 25% chance
Smart money signal: Trader 58bro.eth (90% win rate, $33.7M profit) is betting BTC stays between $70K and $95K this month.
Key context: Settlement occurs if BTC merely touches these levels on a 1-minute candle on Binance. This creates a narrow battlefield where $85K-$90K is the primary resistance zone.
⚡️ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1️⃣ US CPI (Wed) - The most important data point before the FOMC. A hot print could cement expectations for a hawkish hold; a soft print could trigger relief across risk assets.
2️⃣ Warsh Speech (Fri) - His last public comments before the blackout period. With the Fed Chair refusing forward guidance, markets will parse every word for clues on the October decision .
3️⃣ PPI + Retail Sales (Thu) - Released simultaneously. Together with CPI, these complete the inflation and consumer health picture.
4️⃣ Beige Book (Wed) - District-by-district view of the economy ahead of the FOMC meeting
Stay sharp. CPI and Warsh set the tone.
