Greetings, traders! 👋
Q4 is off to a strong start. BTC is holding above $85K after softer jobs data, and markets are pricing in a lower chance of an October Fed hike. This week brings FOMC Minutes, PPI data, and the TOKEN2049 summit in Singapore.
All times in UTC for our global community.
📅 MONDAY, OCTOBER 5
🇺🇸 13:45 UTC - US Services & Composite PMI (Sept Final)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - ISM Services PMI (Sept)
🔓 Ethena unlock - ~171.88M tokens (~$41.5M), 3.77% of supply
📊 BTC at ~$86,000, up 1.1% on the day after touching $86,995. Softer US jobs data (only 29K new payrolls, unemployment 4.2%) pushed October Fed hike odds from ~70% to ~14%.
📅 TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6
🇦🇺 04:30 UTC - RBA Rate Decision
🇪🇺 09:00 UTC - EU Retail Sales (Aug)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US Trade Balance (Aug)
📅 WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7: TOKEN2049 + FOMC MINUTES
🚀 TOKEN2049 Singapore (Oct 7-8) - Asia's flagship crypto event
🇺🇸 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
🇺🇸 18:00 UTC - FOMC Minutes: Markets will parse for clues on the Fed's next move
📅 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
🇺🇸 20:30 UTC - Fed Balance Sheet
📅 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - Michigan Inflation Expectations (Oct Prelim)
📅 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10
🔓 Babylon unlock - ~136M tokens (~$47.6M)
📊 POLYMARKET BTC PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels before the end of October:
🔹 $90,000 — 60% chance
🔹 $80,000 downside — 49.5% chance
Key context: Settlement occurs if BTC merely touches these levels on a 1-minute candle on Binance . This creates a narrow battlefield where $85K-$90K is the primary resistance zone, while $80K-$82K is the key support battle line.
Longer-term view (year-end): Polymarket traders give BTC a 69% chance of hitting $85K, 49% for $90K, and 29% for $100K by Dec 31.
⚡️ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1️⃣ FOMC Minutes (Wed): After the softer jobs data, markets want confirmation on the Fed's stance. Any hawkish signal could pressure risk assets .
2️⃣ TOKEN2049 (Wed-Thu): Singapore's biggest crypto event. Potential announcements could move sentiment across the market.
3️⃣ Technical Levels - BTC is consolidating between $84K-$87K. A daily close above $87K targets $89K-$90K; a break below $82K exposes $80K.
Stay sharp. FOMC Minutes and TOKEN2049 set the tone.
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