Greetings, traders! ๐
A critical week for macro data lies ahead. US CPI, PPI, and retail sales all drop in a single stretch โ and Fed Chair Warsh speaks just before the FOMC blackout period. Here's everything on the radar.
All times in UTC for our global community.
๐ MONDAY, OCTOBER 12
๐บ๐ธ US Columbus Day - Bond markets closed, stock markets open
๐ BTC trading at $83,400, holding near the lower end of its two-week range
๐ TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13
๐ฉ๐ช 06:00 UTC - Germany CPI (Sept Final)
๐บ๐ธ 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales (Sept)
๐บ๐ธ 18:00 UTC - US Federal Budget Report (Sept)
๐ WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14 โ US CPI DAY ๐ฅ
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - US CPI (Sept) - The week's main event. BLS confirms release on Oct 14
๐บ๐ธ 13:30 UTC - US Leading Economic Indicators
๐บ๐ธ 18:00 UTC - Fed Beige Book โ Anecdotal economic summary ahead of the Oct 27-28 FOMC
๐ THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15
๐ฌ๐ง 06:00 UTC - UK GDP (Aug)
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales (Sept)
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - US PPI (Sept) - Released alongside retail sales
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims
๐บ๐ธ 16:00 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
๐ FRIDAY, OCTOBER 16
๐บ๐ธ 03:30 UTC - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks - Dialogue with IMF Managing Director Georgieva at the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. This is his last public appearance before the FOMC blackout period begins on Oct 17.
๐ช๐บ 08:00 UTC - EU CPI (Sept Final)
๐บ๐ธ 13:15 UTC - US Industrial Production (Sept)
๐ POLYMARKET BTC PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels by year-end:
๐น $85,000 - 80% chance
๐น $90,000 - 59% chance
๐น $95,000 - 39% chance
๐น $100,000 - 25% chance
Smart money signal: Trader 58bro.eth (90% win rate, $33.7M profit) is betting BTC stays between $70K and $95K this month.
Key context: Settlement occurs if BTC merely touches these levels on a 1-minute candle on Binance. This creates a narrow battlefield where $85K-$90K is the primary resistance zone.
โก๏ธ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1๏ธโฃ US CPI (Wed) - The most important data point before the FOMC. A hot print could cement expectations for a hawkish hold; a soft print could trigger relief across risk assets.
2๏ธโฃ Warsh Speech (Fri) - His last public comments before the blackout period. With the Fed Chair refusing forward guidance, markets will parse every word for clues on the October decision .
3๏ธโฃ PPI + Retail Sales (Thu) - Released simultaneously. Together with CPI, these complete the inflation and consumer health picture.
4๏ธโฃ Beige Book (Wed) - District-by-district view of the economy ahead of the FOMC meeting
Stay sharp. CPI and Warsh set the tone.
