Greetings, traders! 👋
CPI week is here. Inflation data drops Wednesday — and it could seal the fate of September rate expectations. Add token unlocks, PPI, retail sales, and Fed speakers to the mix. Here's everything on the radar.
All times in UTC for our global community👇
📈 ETF Inflows in August
Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $853.5M so far in August — the best weekly performance since April. BlackRock's IBIT led with $693.5M, marking the strongest inflows of any ETF since January. This is a sharp rebound from July's $172M and helps support BTC in the $64K-$65K zone.
📉 Historical Context: August is BTC's Weakest Month
August is historically the worst month for Bitcoin: 9 red closes in 13 years, with a median return of -7.49%. If bearish catalysts align, BTC could drop to ~$59K, which would fit historical patterns.
💵 Key resistance: $65,000-$65,600. Support: $63,700-$64,000.
All times in UTC for our global community.
📅 MONDAY, August 10
🔓 Avalanche unlock - ~1.67M tokens (~$10.8M), 0.31% of supply
📅 TUESDAY, August 11
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales (July)
📅 WEDNESDAY, August 12 - CPI DAY 🔥
🇩🇪 06:00 UTC - Germany CPI (July Final)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC — US CPI (July) — The main event. Headline expected to cool, but core CPI is the Fed's focus. Sticky core above 3.3% reduces odds of rate cuts.
🇺🇸 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
🇺🇸 16:00 UTC - WASDE Report (USDA)
🇺🇸 18:00 UTC - US Federal Budget Report (July)
🔓Aptos unlock ~11.31M tokens (~$6.7M)
🔓PUMP unlock ~6.875B tokens (~$10-16M) - Split between team (~4.17B) and investors (~2.71B), following a 12-month cliff
📅 THURSDAY, August 13
🇬🇧 06:00 UTC - UK GDP (Q2 Prelim)
🇪🇺 09:00 UTC - EU Industrial Production (June)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US PPI (July) - Consensus: core PPI +0.3% MoM, services-driven
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
🗣 12:40 UTC - Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks — 10 minutes after PPI. He has a 2026 FOMC vote. Any hawkish tone could trigger a "PPI aftershock" across bonds, dollar, and BTC.
🇺🇸 20:30 UTC - Fed Balance Sheet
📅 FRIDAY, August 14
🇪🇺 09:00 UTC - EU GDP (Q2 Prelim)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US Retail Sales (July) - Expected +0.5% MoM - the consumer health check
🇺🇸 15:00 UTC - Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (Aug Prelim)
📅 SUNDAY, August 16
🔓 YZY unlock ~120-121M tokens (~$35.8M), ~22.83% of circulating supply - largest relative unlock of the week
🔓 Arbitrum unlock ~$9.17M
⚡️ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1️⃣ CPI Data (Wed) - The most important event of the week. A cooler print strengthens the case for Fed easing and tends to support risk appetite. A hotter reading reinforces higher-for-longer, a headwind for crypto.
2️⃣ Barkin Speech (Thu) — 10 minutes after PPI. Richmond Fed President has a 2026 FOMC vote. Markets will parse his tone carefully.
3️⃣ Token Unlocks - Over $100M in new supply hits this week. PUMP and APT drop Wednesday.
4️⃣ ETF Inflows - $853.5M in August so far, best weekly performance since April. BlackRock's IBIT led with $693.5M.
5️⃣ BTC has closed August red in 9 of the last 13 years. A drop to $59K would fit historical patterns if bearish catalysts align.
Stay sharp. CPI is the catalyst.
