Greetings, traders! 👋
The most packed week of the month is here: FOMC decision, US/EU/Germany GDP trifecta, $2.5B in BTC options targeting $72K, and FTX's $900M distribution. Here's everything on the radar.
All times in UTC for our global community👇
📅 MONDAY, July 27
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US Durable Goods Orders (June Prelim)
Business spending snapshot - key for Q2 GDP expectations.
📅 TUESDAY, July 28
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US Trade Balance (June)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - US CB Consumer Confidence (July)
⛓️ Zcash Ironwood Hard Fork - Activates at block 3,428,143
Seals the vulnerable Orchard shielded pool after a 4-year bug discovery. Funds can only exit through a cryptographic "turnstile" - any counterfeit ZEC gets permanently trapped.
📅 WEDNESDAY, July 29 - FOMC DAY 🔥
🇺🇸 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
🇺🇸 18:00 UTC - FOMC Interest Rate Decision
Expected to hold at 3.50%-3.75%, but markets now price ~35% odds of a hike - up from just 10% a week ago. Oil spike (Brent above $96) and geopolitical tensions are fueling inflation fears.
🇺🇸 18:30 UTC - FOMC Press Conference with Chair Kevin Warsh
All eyes on his tone. Some Fed officials are now split on inflation risk.
📅 THURSDAY, July 30 - GDP Triple-Header Day 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇩🇪
🇩🇪 08:00 UTC - Germany GDP (Q2 Prelim)
🇪🇺 09:00 UTC - EU GDP (Q2 Prelim)
🇬🇧 11:00 UTC - Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
🇩🇪 12:00 UTC - Germany CPI (July Prelim)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US GDP (Q2 Advance Estimate)
Expected slowdown. Atlanta Fed tracking ~1.3% annualized.
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Core PCE Price Index (June)
Fed's favorite inflation gauge — any deviation could shift rate expectations.
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - US Pending Home Sales (June)
📅 FRIDAY, July 31 - Options Expiry & FTX Payouts 💰
🇨🇳 01:30 UTC - China PMIs (Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/Composite) - July
🇪🇺 09:00 UTC - EU CPI (July Prelim)
🇺🇸 15:00 UTC - Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (July Final)
📊 08:00 UTC - Weekly BTC & ETH Options Expiry + $2.5B in BTC call spreads targeting $72K expire today
Traders bought 20,000 contracts of the $70K call and sold 20,000 of the $72K call. Maximum payout hits if BTC reaches $72K by Friday.
💰 FTX Fifth Distribution Starts - ~$900M to creditors
Recovery rates: smaller creditors get 120%, U.S. and international creditors get 105%. This cash could rotate back into crypto.
⚡️ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1️⃣ FOMC Decision (Wed) - The main event. A hawkish hold or surprise hike could trigger sharp BTC moves. Current odds: 35% hike, 65% hold.
2️⃣ GDP Trifecta (Thu) - US, EU, and Germany all release Q2 GDP. The broadest macro picture of the week.
3️⃣ $2.5B BTC Options Expiry (Fri) - 20K contracts targeting $ 72K. If BTC fails to reach $70K, these options expire worthless, potentially removing bullish gamma support.
4️⃣ FTX $900M Distribution (Fri) - Fifth payout round. Could inject fresh liquidity into crypto markets.
Stay sharp. Trade smart.Trade decentralized.