Greetings, traders! ๐
A critical inflation week is here. US CPI drops Tuesday, and Bitcoin is sitting right on the 200-day moving average - the level that decides whether this correction becomes a full-blown downtrend.
All times in UTC for our global community.
๐ตWHY BTC ISN'T BOUNCING: THE MACRO BACKDROP
Democrats won both chambers. Markets are pricing in stricter crypto regulation, and Senate Democrat Richard Blumenthal has already demanded documents from Binance, Tether, and World Liberty Financial by January 4, 2027.
NFP came in hot. October payrolls rose +165K vs. consensus +65K. Unemployment fell to 4.1%. This reinforced expectations that the Fed stays hawkish - markets now price ~77% odds of a December hike . Higher rates = pressure on risk assets.
The technical line that matters: $73,170. This is the 200-day moving average. BTC hasn't closed below it since August 18. A confirmed break below signals a shift to a bearish long-term trend. Above it, the correction remains within a normal range.
๐ MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9
๐จ๐ณ 01:30 UTC - China CPI (Oct)
๐ TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10 - US CPI DAY ๐ฅ
๐ Digital Asset Summit 2026 - London (Nov 10-11). Institutional focus on custody, tokenization, and MiCA regulation.
๐บ๐ธ 13:30 UTC - US CPI (Oct) - Consensus: +0.3% MoM headline, +0.2% core. This is the key data point before the December FOMC.
๐ WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 11
๐ฉ๐ช 07:00 UTC - Germany CPI (Oct Final)
๐ช๐บ 09:45 UTC - ECB President Lagarde speech
๐ THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12
๐ฌ๐ง 07:00 UTC - UK GDP (Q3 Prelim)
๐ช๐บ 09:00 UTC - ECB Monthly Report
๐บ๐ธ 13:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
๐บ๐ธ 15:00 UTC - US Existing Home Sales (Oct)
๐ PUMP unlock - ~9.17B tokens (~$38.0M)
๐ FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13 โ PPI + OPTIONS EXPIRY
๐บ๐ธ 13:30 UTC - US PPI (Oct) - Consensus: +0.4% MoM
๐ 08:00 UTC - Deribit Options Expiry - BTC OI ~$89.5M, P/C ratio 1.25 (put-heavy)
๐ POLYMARKET BTC PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket (>$82M volume) prices BTC hitting these levels before 2027:
๐น $70,000 - 52% chance (downside test)
๐น $90,000 - 24% chance
๐น $100,000 - 9% chance
November contracts: 81% chance of touching $77,500, 56% for $80,000, and 61% for $72,500.
Kalshi year-end settlement: $75K-$79,999 leads at 17.6%, followed closely by $70K-$74,999 at 17.5%.
โก๏ธ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1๏ธโฃ US CPI (Tue) - With December hike odds at ~77%, a hot core print could cement tightening. A soft print might offer relief, but sticky services inflation remains the risk.
2๏ธโฃ $73,170 - The 200-Day MA - The single most important level on the chart. A daily close below confirms a trend shift. Watch it closely.
3๏ธโฃ Options Expiry (Fri) - BTC OI is put-heavy (P/C 1.25), suggesting hedging demand. Max pain positioning can still create volatility.
Stay sharp. CPI and the 200-day MA decide the next move.
XBTS DEX & DeFi & Private Swaps Aggregator
