Greetings, traders! ๐
Q4 is off to a strong start. BTC is holding above $85K after softer jobs data, and markets are pricing in a lower chance of an October Fed hike. This week brings FOMC Minutes, PPI data, and the TOKEN2049 summit in Singapore.
All times in UTC for our global community.
๐ MONDAY, OCTOBER 5
๐บ๐ธ 13:45 UTC - US Services & Composite PMI (Sept Final)
๐บ๐ธ 14:00 UTC - ISM Services PMI (Sept)
๐ Ethena unlock - ~171.88M tokens (~$41.5M), 3.77% of supply
๐ BTC at ~$86,000, up 1.1% on the day after touching $86,995. Softer US jobs data (only 29K new payrolls, unemployment 4.2%) pushed October Fed hike odds from ~70% to ~14%.
๐ TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6
๐ฆ๐บ 04:30 UTC - RBA Rate Decision
๐ช๐บ 09:00 UTC - EU Retail Sales (Aug)
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - US Trade Balance (Aug)
๐ WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7: TOKEN2049 + FOMC MINUTES
๐ TOKEN2049 Singapore (Oct 7-8) - Asia's flagship crypto event
๐บ๐ธ 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
๐บ๐ธ 18:00 UTC - FOMC Minutes: Markets will parse for clues on the Fed's next move
๐ THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
๐บ๐ธ 20:30 UTC - Fed Balance Sheet
๐ FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9
๐บ๐ธ 14:00 UTC - Michigan Inflation Expectations (Oct Prelim)
๐ SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10
๐ Babylon unlock - ~136M tokens (~$47.6M)
๐ POLYMARKET BTC PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels before the end of October:
๐น $90,000 โ 60% chance
๐น $80,000 downside โ 49.5% chance
Key context: Settlement occurs if BTC merely touches these levels on a 1-minute candle on Binance . This creates a narrow battlefield where $85K-$90K is the primary resistance zone, while $80K-$82K is the key support battle line.
Longer-term view (year-end): Polymarket traders give BTC a 69% chance of hitting $85K, 49% for $90K, and 29% for $100K by Dec 31.
โก๏ธ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1๏ธโฃ FOMC Minutes (Wed): After the softer jobs data, markets want confirmation on the Fed's stance. Any hawkish signal could pressure risk assets .
2๏ธโฃ TOKEN2049 (Wed-Thu): Singapore's biggest crypto event. Potential announcements could move sentiment across the market.
3๏ธโฃ Technical Levels - BTC is consolidating between $84K-$87K. A daily close above $87K targets $89K-$90K; a break below $82K exposes $80K.
Stay sharp. FOMC Minutes and TOKEN2049 set the tone.
XBTS Dex & DeFi
Dex NEW UI https://trade.xbts.io
Dex Classic https://ex.xbts.io
Safely! Instantly! Simply
