Greetings, traders! 👋
Midterm elections, Jobs Week, a massive BTW unlock, and Binance's post-hack recovery define this week. Here's what's on the radar.
All times in UTC for our global community.
📅 MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2
🇨🇳 01:45 UTC - China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
🇪🇺 09:00 UTC - EU Manufacturing PMI (Oct Final)
🇺🇸 14:45 UTC - US Manufacturing PMI (Oct Final)
🔓 Bitway unlock - ~101.63M tokens (~$109.66M), 3.37% of released supply - the largest one-time unlock this week
📅 TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3 - MIDTERM ELECTIONS 🏛
🗳 US Midterm Elections - Polls close starting at 23:00 UTC. Results may take days or weeks for close races.
🇺🇸 15:00 UTC - JOLTS Job Openings (Sept)
📅 WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 4 - ADP + ISM SERVICES
🇪🇺 09:00 UTC - EU Services & Composite PMI (Oct Final)
🇪🇺 10:00 UTC - EU CPI (Oct Prelim)
🇺🇸 13:15 UTC - ADP Employment Change (Oct)
🇺🇸 13:30 UTC - US Trade Balance (Sept)
🇺🇸 14:45 UTC - US Services & Composite PMI (Oct Final)
🇺🇸 15:00 UTC - ISM Services PMI (Oct)
🇺🇸 15:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
🔓 Momentum unlock - ~252M tokens (~$32.3M), 294.38% of circulating supply - the largest relative unlock this week
📅 THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5
🇺🇸 13:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
🇪🇺 18:00 UTC - ECB President Lagarde speech
🔓 Ethena unlock - ~93.75M tokens (~$18.4M), at Nov 4, 16:00 UTC (00:00 Beijing, Nov 5)
📅 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6 — NFP DAY 📊
🇺🇸 00:30 UTC - Fed Balance Sheet
🇺🇸 13:30 UTC - Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) - Consensus: +50K. Unemployment expected at 4.2%
🇺🇸 13:30 UTC - Unemployment Rate (Oct)
🇺🇸 15:00 UTC - Michigan Inflation Expectations (Nov Prelim)
📅 SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8
🔓 Avalanche unlock - ~1.67M tokens (~$14.7M), 0.30% of circulating supply
🚨 BINANCE POST-HACK RECOVERY - INCOMPLETE
Binance resumed withdrawals on Nov 1 after the $6.3B exploit, but the reopening is phased and incomplete:
❌ Still suspended: 531 of 552 listed coins remain fully or partially suspended.
Net outflow: $3.64B in the first 9.5 hours (2.1% of AUM).
FBI attribution: North Korea's TraderTraitor group responsible. Hackers are converting stolen assets to ETH for laundering
📊 POLYMARKET BTC PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels by year-end:
🔹 $85,000 — 80% chance
🔹 $90,000 — 59% chance
🔹 $95,000 — 39% chance
🔹 $100,000 — 25% chance
Smart money signal: Trader 58bro.eth (90% win rate, $33.7M profit) is betting BTC stays between $70K and $95K this month.
⚡️ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1️⃣ NFP Report (Fri) — Consensus +50K. After September's weak 29K print, a soft number could reinforce slowdown fears.
2️⃣ BTW Unlock (Mon) - ~$110M in new supply hits today. One of the largest one-time unlocks this week .
3️⃣ MMT Unlock (Wed) - 294% of circulating supply unlocks. Extreme dilution event - expect severe volatility on MMT.
4️⃣ Binance Recovery - Withdrawals are only partially restored.
Stay sharp. Elections, Jobs Week, and Binance's recovery set the tone.
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