Greetings, traders! 👋
Markets are still digesting the Fed's first rate hike since 2023. This week brings Flash PMIs, major exchange closures, and over $190M in token unlocks.
All times in UTC for our global community.
📅 MONDAY, September 21
🇨🇳 01:15 UTC - China PBoC Loan Prime Rate
🇪🇺 15:00 UTC - ECB President Lagarde speech
📅 TUESDAY, September 22
📌 CoinEx stops all services except spot trading. On-chain deposits blocked except CET .
📅 WEDNESDAY, September 23 - BITMEX CLOSURE DAY 🚨
🇪🇺 08:00 UTC - EU Flash PMIs (Manufacturing/Services/Composite) — Sept Prelim
🇺🇸 13:45 UTC - US Flash PMIs - First major economic indicator after the Fed's rate hike
🇺🇸 14:05 UTC - Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speech
🇺🇸 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
🚨 BitMEX permanently shuts down at 04:00 UTC. All open positions force-closed. Withdrawal access remains, but KYC'd users face monthly fees .
📅 THURSDAY, September 24
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - US New Home Sales (Aug)
🇺🇸 20:30 UTC - Fed Balance Sheet
🔓 World Network unlock — ~100.06M tokens (~$171.3M)
📅 FRIDAY, September 25 — OPTIONS EXPIRY DAY 📊
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US Durable Goods Orders (Aug)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (Sept Final)
📊 08:00 UTC - $16.6B in BTC & ETH Options Expiry - Max pain at $72,000
🔓 Humanity unlock - ~266M tokens (~$19.3M), 7.34% of circulating supply
📅 SUNDAY, September 27
🔓 Plasma unlock - ~29.72M tokens (~$28.47M)
📊 POLYMARKET PRICE OUTLOOK: What Traders Are Betting
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels by year-end:
🔹 $85,000 - 80% chance
🔹 $90,000 - 59% chance
🔹 $95,000 - 39% chance
🔹 $100,000 - 25% chance
🔹 $150,000 - just 2% chance
Note: These are odds of BTC touching the level at any point before Dec 31.
⚡️ REGULATORY WATCH - SEC ACTS AFTER CLARITY FAILS 🏛
SEC issues Innovation Exemption - SEC granted a five-year conditional exemption allowing Tokenized Securities Venues (TSVs) to trade tokenized US stocks without registering as exchanges .
⚡️ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1️⃣ SEC Innovation Exemption — A major regulatory development.
2️⃣ Exchange Closures — BitMEX (Sept 23) and CoinEx (Sept 22 non-spot) are shutting down.
3️⃣ Flash PMIs (Wed) — First economic data after the Fed's hike. Weak readings could reignite policy error fears.
4️⃣ Options Expiry (Fri) — $16.6B expiry with max pain at $72K. Volatility likely.
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