Greetings, traders! ๐
A super-central-bank week is here: the Fed, ECB, and BoJ all meet, plus Ripple Swell and Stellar Meridian. Add a $11B+ Bitcoin options expiry and Strategy's Q3 earnings, here's what's on the radar.
All times in UTC for our global community.
๐ MONDAY, OCTOBER 26
๐ฏ๐ต 23:00 UTC (Oct 25) - Japan Leading Economic Index (Aug)
๐ TUESDAY, OCTOBER 27 - RIPPLE SWELL OPENS
๐ Ripple Swell 2026 - New York (Oct 27-29). 1,500+ attendees, 100+ speakers including CME Group CEO Terrence Duffy and Bullish CEO Tom Farley. Focus on RLUSD and XRPL partnerships.
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - US Durable Goods Orders (Sept Prelim)
๐บ๐ธ 14:00 UTC - CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
๐บ๐ธ 14:00 UTC - US New Home Sales (Sept)
๐ช๐บ 17:00 UTC - ECB President Lagarde speech
๐ WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28 - FOMC DAY ๐ฅ
๐ Stellar Meridian 2026 - Lisbon (Oct 28-29).
๐บ๐ธ 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
๐บ๐ธ 18:00 UTC - FOMC Rate Decision - ~90% probability of a hold at 3.75%-4.00%. Markets expect a pause before the midterms and a hike in December.
๐บ๐ธ 18:30 UTC - FOMC Press Conference with Chair Kevin Warsh
๐ THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29 - GDP + PCE + ECB + STRATEGY EARNINGS
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - Core PCE Price Index (Sept) โ Consensus: +0.3% MoM, 3.1% YoY
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - US GDP (Q3 Advance)
๐บ๐ธ 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
๐ช๐บ 13:15 UTC - ECB Rate Decision. Expected: hold at 2.50%. A December hike is likely.
๐ After US market close - Strategy (MSTR) Q3 2026 Earnings, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin reports. Webinar at 5:00 PM ET (21:00 UTC).
๐ Falcon Finance unlock - ~203M tokens (~$21.3M), 6.07% of supply, at 20:58 UTC
๐ FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30 - BoJ + OPTIONS EXPIRY ๐ฅ
๐ฏ๐ต ~03:00 UTC - BoJ Rate Decision - Expected: hold at 1.25%. A December or January hike is the base case.
๐ฉ๐ช 09:00 UTC - Germany GDP (Q3 Prelim)
๐ช๐บ 10:00 UTC - EU GDP (Q3 Prelim)
๐ฉ๐ช 13:00 UTC - Germany CPI (Oct Prelim)
๐ 08:00 UTC - Massive Bitcoin Options Expiry on Deribit
~140,800 contracts expiring, notional value ~$11.7B
Max Pain: $78,000โ$79,000 โ below current price
Largest cluster: $95,000 calls โ ~24,000 BTC (~$2.1B notional), now far out-of-the-money
๐ SATURDAY, OCTOBER 31
๐จ๐ณ 01:30 UTC - China PMIs (Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/Composite) - Oct
๐ SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 1
๐ EigenLayer unlock - ~36.82M tokens (~$7.4M), 4.93% of supply
๐ POLYMARKET BTC PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels by year-end:
๐น $85,000 โ 80% chance
๐น $90,000 โ 59% chance
๐น $95,000 โ 39% chance
๐น $100,000 โ 25% chance
โก๏ธ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1๏ธโฃ Options Expiry (Fri) - $11.7B in BTC options expire. Max pain at $78K-$79K creates downward pressure, but the $95K call wall is a "magnet" that can cause sharp swings either way as hedges unwind.
2๏ธโฃ Strategy Earnings (Thu) - Largest corporate BTC holder reports Q3. Any commentary on treasury strategy or BTC accumulation matters.
3๏ธโฃ GDP + PCE (Thu) - Q3 growth and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge drop together. A hot PCE could cement December hike expectations.
4๏ธโฃ ECB Decision (Thu) - Expected hold at 2.50%. Lagarde's tone on energy inflation matters.
5๏ธโฃ BoJ Decision (Fri) - Expected hold. A hawkish December signal could trigger yen volatility and spill into risk assets.
Stay sharp. Central banks, options expiry, and Strategy set the tone.
