Greetings, traders! 👋
China GDP kicks off the week, followed by UK CPI, Flash PMIs, and the Plan ₿ Forum in Lugano. Add $100M+ in token unlocks and continued ETF outflows.
All times in UTC for our global community.
📅 MONDAY, OCTOBER 19
🇨🇳 02:00 UTC = China GDP (Q3) = Consensus: 4.4% YoY (prior: 4.3%)
🇨🇳 02:00 UTC = China Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment (Sept)
🐋 MARA moved 1,000 BTC to Binance and Gate = analysts flag potential miner selling pressure
📅 TUESDAY, OCTOBER 20
🇨🇳 01:15 UTC - China PBoC Loan Prime Rate. Expected: hold at 3.00% (1Y) and 3.50% (5Y)
🇩🇪 06:00 UTC - Germany PPI (Sept)
🇪🇺 09:05 UTC - Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - US Housing Starts (Sept)
🔓 LayerZero unlock- ~23.28M tokens (~$43.3M), 3.83% of supply, at 03:00 UTC
Kaito - ~$5M
📅 WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 21
🇬🇧 06:00 UTC - UK CPI (Sept)
🇬🇧 15:00 UTC - BoE Governor Bailey speech
🇺🇸 14:30 UTC - US Crude Oil Inventories
🔓 Akedo unlock - ~$63.4M, 9.25% of market cap
📅 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22
🇺🇸 12:30 UTC - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
🇺🇸 20:30 UTC - Fed Balance Sheet
📅 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23
🟠 Plan ₿ Forum - Lugano, Switzerland (Oct 23-24)
🇪🇺 08:00 UTC - EU Flash PMIs (Oct Prelim)
🇺🇸 13:45 UTC - US Flash PMIs (Oct Prelim)
🇺🇸 14:00 UTC - Michigan Inflation Expectations (Oct Prelim)
📅 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25
🔓 Plasma unlock - ~$18M, 12.66% of market cap
📊 POLYMARKET BTC PRICE OUTLOOK
Real money on Polymarket prices BTC hitting these levels by year-end:
🔹 $85,000 - 80% chance
🔹 $90,000 - 59% chance
🔹 $95,000 - 39% chance
🔹 $100,000 - 25% chance
⚡️ What XBTS DEX Is Watching This Week
1️⃣ China GDP (Mon) - Q3 growth expected at 4.4% YoY. A miss could reignite global growth concerns and pressure risk assets.
2️⃣ UK CPI + Bailey (Wed) - UK inflation data followed by the BoE Governor's speech. Any hawkish signal could ripple across global bond markets.
3️⃣ ETF Outflows Continue - Second straight week of outflows (~$228M for Oct 12–16). Institutional demand remains muted - a key backdrop for price.
4️⃣ MARA's 1,000 BTC Move (Mon) - Miner transfers to exchanges are closely watched as potential selling signals.
5️⃣ Token Unlocks - Over $140M this week. AKE (~$63.4M) Wednesday, ZRO (~$43.3M) Tuesday, XPL (~$18M) Saturday.
6️⃣ Plan ₿ Forum (Fri-Sat) - Lugano's Bitcoin conference. Potential announcements and sentiment catalyst.
Stay sharp. China GDP and UK CPI set the tone.
